Published Lebanon Daily News January 8, 2009
Reprinted here with permission of the author

A Republican friend (I do have them!), asked me how bad things are and if the economy will ultimately recover. This is what I wrote him back.

Sure, “the economy will ultimately recover.” This is not the end of our empire. It is not 410 AD and the sack of Rome. Think rather the Battle of Adrianople in 378 AD when the Roman army lost it first major battle to the barbarians. It is not the end but it is not the same as it was. The real question is where do we go from here.

Change, whether or not it is change we can believe in, will be full of surprises. Look at the economy and what happened to the rock-bottom principal of ownership. Milton Friedman have mercy on them, the Republican Socialists are ready for the government to take ownership in almost anything.

We will never think about money and the economy the same way that we did. Wall Street, the guts of this capital-oriented economy, just isn’t there anymore. All of the great investment houses, some of which we have known since the 1800s and are what we thought of as Wall Street, are gone – acquired, merged, bankrupt, or morphed into commercial banks. Secretary of Treasury Paulson even suggested a federal corporate charter for all financial entities.

But who can believe anything Paulson says now. He gave away $350 billion with no strings attached and to no effect. With that money, his banking buddies bought banks, held parties and gave dividends and bonuses with nary a thought for the people they were supposed to lend to.

Our politics will likewise never be the same, even if no one wants to explicitly recognize the fact. President George W. Bush so empowered an Executive Presidency that he could ignore habeas corpus, order “enhanced interrogation” and warrantless wiretaps, force banks to sell ownership to the government, give money to the auto industry after the Congress had explicitly said no and, in effect, do absolutely anything with a simple signing statement. And he wasn’t impeached!

Now, Barack Obama could call on all the same powers but, hopefully, he won’t need unconstitutional powers to do what he is talking about. So what will he do?

The guy was more than a constitutional authority; he was a social worker and community organizer. He knows the problems of the disenfranchised, the poor, the working stiffs and one should expect that he will try to do something for them. They are, after all, the ones who gave him almost $500 million to campaign with and voted for him.

He’ll give unions back their bargaining rights, tax away the money that the super rich skimmed over the past 30 years and make markets work for those who produce the goods and services. If that isn’t a change from tax cuts for the rich, I don’t know what is.

In the meantime, look out for a president who promises radical action — like supporting sit-down strikers! –  and then appoints superb technicians. They will be relentlessly efficient in getting him what he wants. Especially when previously unacceptable ideas, like a single-payer, universal coverage healthcare system, fit with the newly discovered role of an efficient government.
It will not be simple. There will be no straight-line extrapolations. At this point, as things get worse — very much worse, people are getting really ticked off at all of our leadership elites. Obama is going to have to be very adroit at controlling that anger to keep things from getting out of hand.

Obama, in his guise of an outsider, seems well placed to do a good job with his presidency, but it is a problem that George W. Bush and, ultimately Ronald Reagan, gave him that chance. They pushed the ideological pendulum so far to the right that I fear it could come careening back out of control.
We should all be concerned about the changes that are going to happen and that even Obama and his moderates may not be able to control. Compared to that, when this “great recession” will be over is almost trivial.

But my best answer to that question is: It depends. I am a two armed economist. If, on the one hand, they go at it right as a middle-class solvency problem and attack the lack of wages and purchasing power, then it can end as early as the 4th quarter of 2009.

If, on the other hand, they treat it as a financial liquidity crisis then I have to think that it will be a long slow pull off of the bottom. It will be the infamous “L” shaped recession where the economy will stop falling but will have only barely perceptible growth that could last into 2015.

We live in interesting times.

–
Paul A. Heise, PhD
Emeritus Professor of Economics
Lebanon Valley College
717 964-2019

“Terror is the price we pay for empire. Moral decay is the price we pay for religious repression.”

And we haven’t got a lot of time to move on the particular action in this alert so please go to the Obama change site TODAY (voting closes 12/31 at midnight), where there is already a question calling for a special prosecutor, and

1. Sign in at http://change.gov/openforquestions
2. Search for “Fitzgerald”
3. This will display several similar questions, so look carefully for “Bob Fertik” (who started the question)
4. Look right for the checkbox, mouseover it so it goes from white to dark, then click to cast your vote

And let’s all vote for the SAME question (don’t start another new one) and demonstrate to our new incoming administration that letting the crimes of the past slide without retribution is NOT an option.

THEN GET YOUR NEW CONVICT DICK & W CAP TO DEMONSTRATE WITH

As we in the White House accountability movement look forward, whether it’s impeachment, federal prosecution, or state by state prosecutions as a last resort, the key work is “convict”.  And that is why we are introducing a new cap to wear to continue to carry the ball with that says “CONVICT DICK & W” in red, white and blue.  If you want to be one of the first to get one of these new caps please submit the page below.

New Convict Dick & W Cap:  http://www.usalone.com/convict_cap.php

We are not setting a price for these.  You can have one for a contribution of any amount.  We just want to put as many out there as possible.  And we will have much more news for you soon about planned actions to pressure prosecutors at all levels to step up to the plate and do their duty.

We are in this thing for the long haul, folks.  The criminal dictators of the future can only be constrained by pursuing prosecution NOW of the criminal dictators of the present and past.  In some cases it has taken many years of work by dedicated activists to bring criminal former heads of state to justice.

We the people will never forget the crimes of the Bush/Cheney administration.  How can we?  Their willful disasters will cripple our economy, our military, every aspect of our government and our own personal lives for many years to come.  But if we just continue to speak out, someday soon enough there WILL be prosecutors at some level who will have the integrity, backbone and determination to do what Congress to their eternal shame did not.

Please take action NOW, so we can win all victories that are supposed to be ours, and forward this alert as widely as possible.

Dear Volunteer,

Every time our nation faces crisis, our national experience has shown Americans rise to the challenge. While government has an important role to play in helping rekindle our economy and addressing the problems of a distressed nation, President-elect Obama believes each of us, as Americans, have a responsibility to do what we can for our communities and fellow citizens. We are one nation.

The United States is once again at a crossroads and that is why the President-elect hopes to use the occasion of his Inauguration to rally our nation to commit to service in our communities. We are asking for your organization’s participation in meeting this challenge.

In 1994, Congress transformed the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday into a national day of community service to further commemorate a man who lived his life in service to others. As a tribute to that legacy and the very real needs of our nation, the President-elect and Vice President-elect will launch a national organizing effort on the eve of their Inauguration to engage Americans in service. This national day of service will fall on Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, January 19, 2009 and, unlike past calls to service, President-elect Obama will ask Americans to do more than just offer a single day of service to their cities, towns and neighborhoods. He will ask all of us to make an ongoing commitment to our communities. Never has it been more important to come together in shared purpose to tackle the common challenges we face.

The call will go to all Americans to organize service projects and join others at events in their communities. As the Co-chairs of the Presidential Inaugural Committee, we invite you and your organization to join other Americans to organize service projects in your communities. The Presidential Inaugural Committee will offer Americans a new website to help promote your events and for Americans to make their commitments, build communities, find opportunities to serve and share their results. These can be events that orient people to your organization’s work, engage people in direct service, or bring people together to reflect on Dr. King’s legacy and how they can commit to becoming more engaged citizens. To submit a service event that you will help organize, please go to http://www.pic2009.org/page/s/DS1

We have a great opportunity to set the tone for the next four years and I know you will rise to the challenge. Thank you for all your support.

Sincerely,
William M. Daley
Patrick Ryan
Penny Pritzker
Julianna Smoot
John W. Rogers, Jr.

This would go a long way to restoring America’s standing in the world community. There are already laws on the books forbidding torture. The military has regulations forbidding torture. The only thing which allows the practice is executive orders signed by President Bush and his outlaw followers. An executive order signed by one president can be overturned by another president with the stroke of a pen.

This would not interfere with the work on economic recovery. The President Elect has plenty of attorneys working on the transition who are not involved in the economic program. As a constitutional scholar I am sure Obama could write such an order in his sleep. It probably only needs to be one paragraph long. If examples are needed they are readily available going clear back to General Washington.

Submitted by Vicky on 28/Nov/2008 in reply to On the First Day posted by John Harvey on 27/Nov/2008

What exactly is an executive order, John?

I certainly agree that we should not be torturing people. It makes a risk that our troops could be tortured, I think.

Submitted by John Harvey on 28/Nov/2008 in reply to Re: On the First Day posted by Vicky on 28/Nov/2008

An executive order is all that is needed. Congress already passed a law outlawing torture. It is Bush’s signing statement and orders issued by Bush and his cronies that allowed its use.

You are exactly right. Our practicing torture endangers any member of the armed forces who is captured. One cannot demand any better treatment
when captured than our side gives our prisoners. In fact, several war criminals, including Charles Taylor, have claimed that they are not guilty because they were just doing what George Bush authorized.

There is even proof that the Geneva Conventions work. After World War II the government studied treatment of POWs by the Germans and Japanese.
Germany and the United States had signed the treaties governing the treatment of POWs. Russia and Japan had not signed.

I do not remember the exact numbers but only about 10% of Americans captured by the Germans were mistreated or tortured. Russians captured
by the Germans had about 40% mistreated or tortured. About 60% of Americans captured by the Japanese were tortured or mistreated.

The first order forbidding torture was issues by General Washington as soon as he took command of the Continental Army. While torture has certainly been used by the United States. George W Bush is the first president to explicitly authorize it. It will be a black mark on American history as long as this country exists.